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Methodology

Last updated: June 3, 2026

Dynasty Blueprint is a free dynasty fantasy football analytics tool. The values you see are a consensus across six expert sources, not a single ranking. This page documents exactly how those values are computed, weighted, adjusted for your league's scoring, and applied to trades. If you spot something wrong, email [email protected].

  1. Data sources
  2. Consensus value
  3. Format adjustment (Superflex / 1-QB / TE Premium)
  4. Trade calculator — tier multipliers + pieces tax
  5. Snap share, PPG, and season stats
  6. The radar (12 signals)
  7. History view and trade-day values
  8. Pick values (proprietary model)
  9. Refresh cadence
  10. League integration and privacy
  11. What we log
  12. What this tool is not
  13. Open questions / roadmap

1. Data sources

We pull dynasty values from six community sources and average them by player. Each source updates on its own cadence; we re-pull on the schedule in section 8.

CodeSourceType
KTCKTCCrowdsourced trade votes
FPFantasyPros ECRExpert consensus (100+ analysts)
FCFantasyCalcCrowdsourced trade analyzer data
RARosterAuditAlgorithmic dynasty values
DPDynastyProcessOpen-source dynasty values
DDDynastyDaddyCommunity-driven dynasty values

A seventh source, RotoTrade, is bundled for player-only views but not included in the consensus (it doesn't publish picks). Beyond value sources, we pull NFL snap counts from nflverse and season stats for PPG calculation (see section 5).

2. Consensus value

For each player we collect every source that publishes a value, then average. Each source ships both a Superflex value and a 1-QB value:

3. Format adjustment (Superflex / 1-QB / TE Premium)

The raw consensus value is scaled to match your league's scoring before anything else runs:

Superflex vs 1-QB

If your league has a SUPER_FLEX slot, we use the Superflex consensus directly. If not, we use the 1-QB consensus — which is published natively by each source and tends to compress QB values dramatically. Switching formats in the Settings drawer changes every value site-wide instantly, including in the trade calculator.

TE Premium

If your league's Sleeper scoring has bonus_rec_te > 0 (typically 0.5 or 1.0), every TE's value is boosted proportionally. The bonus is applied as a per-reception adder on top of base PPR, then mapped back onto the value scale so TE valuations match the actual fantasy points they'll score for your league.

Custom scoring (PPG)

When we compute fantasy points-per-game from season stats, we use your league's actual Sleeper scoring settings (pass yd/TD/INT, rush yd/TD, rec/rec yd/TD, fum lost, TE bonus, etc.), not a generic preset. PPG is shown alongside values on the Players tab.

4. Trade calculator — adjusted value

Trades aren't just the sum of raw values. A 9,500-value stud is worth more than two 4,750s, because the stud's roster spot matters and you can't start two of them. We apply two adjustments on top of format-adjusted values:

Tier multipliers

Top-end players get a premium because they're scarcer than their raw values suggest. Each player's format-adjusted value is multiplied by:

TierValueMultiplier
Untouchable≥ 9,5001.30
Elite8,500–9,4991.18
Star7,000–8,4991.10
Starter5,000–6,9991.03
Depth2,000–4,9991.00
Filler< 2,0000.85

Pieces tax (tier-aware)

Stacking low-value players to "win" a trade on raw points doesn't actually improve your roster — those pieces are barely above waiver-wire replacement. So we tax only the low-value pieces, not studs.

The result is the adjusted total (shown in green throughout the calculator). The verdict label is computed from adjusted totals, not raw, using the percentage gap between the two sides:

GapVerdict
< 5%Fair Trade
5–10%Slight Edge to [side]
10–20%[Side] Wins
≥ 20%Heavy Lean to [side]

The gap is calculated as |adjA − adjB| / ((adjA + adjB) / 2). When the raw-value verdict and the premium-adjusted verdict materially disagree (delta swing > 300 and the winning side flips), we flag it as a "premium swing" so you can see that tier or pieces math drove the result.

Pairwise verdicts

For 3- and 4-side trades, we evaluate every pair of sides and report each pair's verdict. The team giving up less adjusted value gets the lean — the calculator favors the side receiving the better return.

Quick (sidebar) calculator

The slim two-side calculator that lives in the sidebar uses the same tier multipliers but a simpler pieces tax: 4% per extra piece (any value, not just low-value), capped at 20%. It exists for fast back-of-envelope comparisons; use the full calculator on the Trade tab for accurate verdicts on multi-asset trades.

5. Snap share, PPG, and season stats

Value alone is a market consensus. To help you spot players the market hasn't repriced yet, we also surface two production metrics on the Players tab and in the radar:

Snap share

Pulled from nflverse's offensive snap counts (PFR-sourced). We compute season offense_pct per skill-position player and the last-3-games average. 2025 data is live (~600 skill players); 2026 falls back gracefully when the season-stats file hasn't been released yet.

PPG

Calculated from raw box-score season stats × your league's actual scoring config. The formula:

0.04·pass_yds + 4·pass_td − 1·pass_int + 0.1·rush_yds + 6·rush_td + 0.1·rec_yds + 6·rec_td + (ppr + (pos==='TE' ? tep : 0))·rec − 2·fumbles_lost

Divided by games played. Both PPG and Snap% are sortable columns; rookies with no NFL games yet show "—".

6. The radar (12 signals)

The radar flags BUY/SELL/HOLD candidates by combining 12 signals. A player only appears if multiple signals agree. The signals are:

  1. Age curve — position-aware age premiums/discounts (RBs decline early, WRs hold longer, etc.)
  2. Source value spread — wide gap between sources suggests under- or over-priced relative to the consensus
  3. Source rank divergence — when one source ranks a player much differently than the others
  4. Injury status — Sleeper injury flags discount affected players
  5. 30/90-day snapshot momentum — change in consensus value from historical R2 snapshots
  6. Owner archetype fit — whether the player fits a contender vs. rebuilder roster shape
  7. Positional roster surplus — owner has too many starters at a position, surplus = SELL candidate
  8. NFL depth-chart blocked — young player stuck behind an established starter
  9. Rookie / 2nd-year recency bias — adjusts for market over-correction on rookie hits/misses
  10. Per-manager trade behavior — patterns in what each league mate trades for
  11. Snap share trend — workload-rising BUY (RB/WR, season snaps < 4,500, last-3 ≥ 65%, +10 pp vs. season avg) and workload-fading SELL (season > 3,500, last-3 ≤ 45%, −15 pp)
  12. 30-day value momentum (snapshot) — direct delta from the 30-day snapshot, used as a tiebreaker

Signals not yet shipped (need backend feeds): target share, air yards, red-zone touches, career durability, contract status, age-adjusted production percentile, NFL draft capital.

7. History view and trade-day values

The History tab pulls your league's trade log from Sleeper and re-prices each trade as of the trade date using R2 snapshots from that day. This lets you see:

Trade-day values only exist for trades after May 18, 2026. Older trades are valued at today's consensus only — we didn't have snapshot coverage before that date.

8. Pick values (Dynasty Blueprint model)

Players are valued by consensus across six expert sources (see sections 1–2). Picks are different. Dynasty Blueprint prices every rookie pick with its own first-principles model — built from historical outcomes, not market opinion. There is no toggle: every pick value shown anywhere in the app (Players tab, trade calculator, fan-team analysis, custom blend) uses the model described below. You will see a DB chip wherever pick values are surfaced.

Why a proprietary model

Crowd-sourced pick markets like KTC are well-documented to be pick-heavy: traders consistently bid picks above their realized outcome value. They also fail to react smoothly to the information curve — a 2027 Early 1st can sit at the same price for months while real conditions change. We wanted a defensible alternative that is grounded in arithmetic, not sentiment, and we apply it everywhere so the numbers you see are internally consistent.

The math

pick_value = E[outcome at slot] × cycle_multiplier(time-to-rookie-draft)

Component 1: E[outcome]

For each slot (e.g. “Mid 1st” = picks 4–7 in a 10-team league), we compute the mean current sf-value of every player drafted at that slot in the last 5 rookie drafts. This is a portfolio mean: it already bakes in hits like Jahmyr Gibbs and busts like the dozens of forgotten Mid 1sts that never panned out. No subjective grading required — just realized outcomes weighted by frequency.

Seeded values from 2021–2025 rookie drafts (will be refreshed by the worker as new outcomes resolve):

SlotPicks (10-team)E[outcome]
Early 1st1–36,400
Mid 1st4–74,100
Late 1st8–102,600
Early 2nd11–131,500
Mid 2nd14–17950
Late 2nd18–20600
Early 3rd21–23400
Mid 3rd24–27280
Late 3rd28–30180

Component 2: cycle_multiplier

Pick value isn't static — it climbs as you get closer to actually drafting the player. The post-NFL-Draft window (T-1 to T-2 months out) is the anchor at 1.00 because that's when landing spots are known and the prospect class has settled. From there, value steps down the further out you go (more uncertainty about who you'll even draft), and steps up slightly in the final weeks as the pick converges on its realized outcome.

The cycle multiplier is a piecewise function of months until your rookie draft (assumed mid-June each year):

Months until rookie draftStageMultiplier
0 – 1Final ramp into rookie draft1.05
1 – 2Post-NFL-Draft anchor1.00
2 – 4Pre-NFL-Draft, mocks tightening0.94
4 – 6Combine / Pro Days season0.88
6 – 8Bowls + declarations0.83
8 – 10Mid college season0.78
10 – 12Early college / NFL Wk 10.74
12 – 14One full year out0.70
14 – 24Two years out (linear ramp)0.70 → 0.60
24+Three+ years out0.55

Note: the curve monotonically rises as the rookie draft approaches. Picks never lose value with time — they only gain it as information accrues.

What we deliberately do NOT include

Worked example

Today is June 3, 2026. A 2027 Mid 1st:

That same pick, one year later in May 2027 (post-NFL-Draft, 1 month from your rookie draft), climbs to 4,100 × 1.05 = 4,305. The pick gains ~50% in value over those 12 months as uncertainty resolves and the prospect class settles. This is the expected, healthy trajectory — picks should appreciate, not depreciate.

The Dynasty Blueprint pick model is an early-stage system. Seed E[outcome] numbers will be replaced by ETL-computed historical outcomes as the worker matures. Treat the absolute values as a directional reference; the relative shape of the curve (slot spacing + cycle ramp) is the more durable signal.

9. Refresh cadence

We refresh on a seasonal schedule because dynasty values move slowly in the offseason and fast during draft week:

PeriodDatesRefresh
Dead zoneFeb 15 – Apr 1424h
Pre-draft buzzApr 15 – May 512h
Draft weekApr 22 – May 123h
Summer quietMay 13 – Jul 1412h
Training campJul 15 – Aug 316h
Regular seasonSep 1 – Jan 104h (1h Sundays)
PlayoffsJan 11 – Feb 148h

Snap counts and season stats are refreshed on the same cadence during the regular season. A daily worker health check verifies the data is fresh and all six sources responded.

10. League integration and privacy

You can paste any public Sleeper league ID and Dynasty Blueprint will pull rosters, settings, draft picks, and trade history via the official Sleeper API.

11. What we log

To understand which league types use the tool (so we can prioritize features like 1-QB or TE Premium correctly), we log a minimal telemetry record once per league per browser per day:

We do not log: roster lineup decisions, trade calculator inputs, trade history, your IP address, account identifiers, or anything you type into the tool. The full telemetry payload is documented in our open Worker source.

12. What this tool is not

13. Open questions / roadmap

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